Comments on: Peak-Oil Economics Unscrambled [Carbonomics, Ch. 3] http://www.energypolicyblog.com/2006/12/29/peak-oil-economics-unscrambled/ Sustainable energy policy, more competition, better regulation, improved policies. Fri, 03 Feb 2012 13:54:12 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: jon http://www.energypolicyblog.com/2006/12/29/peak-oil-economics-unscrambled/comment-page-1/#comment-54608 jon Tue, 10 Nov 2009 23:46:05 +0000 http://www.energypolicyblog.com/?p=142#comment-54608 There is a huge issue with your alternate economic theory. That is that you take the underpinnings of Smith's free market for granted. The key assumption you fail to account for is that an alternate product is available (if apples cost too much, I'll buy a pear). It also assumes rapid changes are possible and a well informed public. Oil is such a quintessential part of our existence from transport to agricultural to consumer goods, that it's a necessity to maintain our current economic output. There is no alternate good or product to replace oil. Even as we begin to adapt, it will never be fast enough. The entire infrastructure of western society is based around the unlimited availability of oil. And the worst part is that the public is so ill informed , that they can't even make a proper decision in the free market. There is a huge issue with your alternate economic theory. That is that you take the underpinnings of Smith’s free market for granted. The key assumption you fail to account for is that an alternate product is available (if apples cost too much, I’ll buy a pear). It also assumes rapid changes are possible and a well informed public. Oil is such a quintessential part of our existence from transport to agricultural to consumer goods, that it’s a necessity to maintain our current economic output. There is no alternate good or product to replace oil. Even as we begin to adapt, it will never be fast enough. The entire infrastructure of western society is based around the unlimited availability of oil. And the worst part is that the public is so ill informed , that they can’t even make a proper decision in the free market.

]]> By: John Busby http://www.energypolicyblog.com/2006/12/29/peak-oil-economics-unscrambled/comment-page-1/#comment-13757 John Busby Thu, 10 Apr 2008 07:34:54 +0000 http://www.energypolicyblog.com/?p=142#comment-13757 In 1972 the Club of Rome published "The Limits to Growth" in which a 21st mid-Century die-off was warned together with measures for its avoidance. This was because of the reducing efficiency of capital due to the progressive reduction in the available concentrations of resources of which oil is but one. Its conclusions were mis-represented as predicting the end of oil in the last century, which it did not. The "die-off" will not be in the developed countries, which are emptying the reserves of undeveloped countries in an attempt to sustain their lifestyle. A good example of this is the substitution of biofuels for transport, competing for land needed for growing food. The growing Transition Towns movement in the UK is a response to the breakdown in society caused by excessive consumption and mobility, but certainly is rooted in a desire to achieve energy sustainability, taking cognisance of the passing of peak oil. Paradoxically, it is an example of the working out of economic theory and the operation of Adam Smith's "invisible" market forces. It will avoid the economic collapse of local communities. Unlike Jonah in the whale, Colin Campbell would not be dismayed if his prophesies are unfulfilled; his motivation is the hope that societies can avoid the coming catastrophe. In 1972 the Club of Rome published “The Limits to Growth” in which a 21st mid-Century die-off was warned together with measures for its avoidance. This was because of the reducing efficiency of capital due to the progressive reduction in the available concentrations of resources of which oil is but one. Its conclusions were mis-represented as predicting the end of oil in the last century, which it did not.

The “die-off” will not be in the developed countries, which are emptying the reserves of undeveloped countries in an attempt to sustain their lifestyle. A good example of this is the substitution of biofuels for transport, competing for land needed for growing food.

The growing Transition Towns movement in the UK is a response to the breakdown in society caused by excessive consumption and mobility, but certainly is rooted in a desire to achieve energy sustainability, taking cognisance of the passing of peak oil. Paradoxically, it is an example of the working out of economic theory and the operation of Adam Smith’s “invisible” market forces. It will avoid the economic collapse of local communities.

Unlike Jonah in the whale, Colin Campbell would not be dismayed if his prophesies are unfulfilled; his motivation is the hope that societies can avoid the coming catastrophe.

]]> By: Steven Stoft http://www.energypolicyblog.com/2006/12/29/peak-oil-economics-unscrambled/comment-page-1/#comment-13703 Steven Stoft Wed, 09 Apr 2008 16:38:36 +0000 http://www.energypolicyblog.com/?p=142#comment-13703 The comment above is an example of the “local communities” cult that pushes the peak-oil catastrophe “theory.” In fact, the cult's two principal leaders, Campbell, a geologist, and Heinberg, the leading author in the US, with fraudulent credentials, both believe that about 4 billion people will be killed in the peak-oil “die-off.” (see dieoff dot org). As documented in my chapter, both think 4 billion dead a good thing, because it will force us back to “tribal” communities. Heinberg was writing about this “collapse” in the 1990s before he heard of peak oil. He’s an old-time commune-style cultist. Real geologists study peak oil. But no real economists discuss, or believe in, the economic collapse, and history shows there is overwhelming evidence against it. The collapse theory is simply a cult that disrupts people lives and accidentally helps Big Oil sell the idea of synfuel subsidies. See my chapter 3 for details. <a href="http://stoft.com/p/23.html" rel="nofollow">stoft.com/p/23.html</a> The comment above is an example of the “local communities” cult that pushes the peak-oil catastrophe “theory.” In fact, the cult’s two principal leaders, Campbell, a geologist, and Heinberg, the leading author in the US, with fraudulent credentials, both believe that about 4 billion people will be killed in the peak-oil “die-off.” (see dieoff dot org).
As documented in my chapter, both think 4 billion dead a good thing, because it will force us back to “tribal” communities. Heinberg was writing about this “collapse” in the 1990s before he heard of peak oil. He’s an old-time commune-style cultist.
Real geologists study peak oil. But no real economists discuss, or believe in, the economic collapse, and history shows there is overwhelming evidence against it. The collapse theory is simply a cult that disrupts people lives and accidentally helps Big Oil sell the idea of synfuel subsidies. See my chapter 3 for details. stoft.com/p/23.html

]]> By: John Busby http://www.energypolicyblog.com/2006/12/29/peak-oil-economics-unscrambled/comment-page-1/#comment-13689 John Busby Wed, 09 Apr 2008 11:54:54 +0000 http://www.energypolicyblog.com/?p=142#comment-13689 The passing of peak conventional oil production in 2005 led to investment in biofuels, tarsands and in gas-to-liquids (GTL) and coal-to-liquids (CTL) liquid fuel substitution processes. Unfortunately the conversion thermal efficiency of both GTL and CTL is poor, so that gas and coal production peaks will be brought forward, while the fuel produced will be expensive. Wether this leads to economic problems depends on the ability of societies to adjust to using around a quarter of the energy they currently consume. In the UK the seeds for this are sown in the Transition Towns initiatives and in the US in the "localisation" movement, enshrining what they call "energy descent". These will lead to a restoration of community values and neighbourliness and families will enjoy having a father working at home on the Internet or digging on his allotment to feed them. The casualties will be the motor and aviation businesses already in decline. The problems will not be caused by the passing of peak oil, but by politicians trying to maintain an economic "status quo". When in a hole the answer is not to dig it deeper by building airports and roads or by subsidising nuclear power destined to run out of fuel. It is the localisation movements that will provide the ladder out of the emerging hole. The passing of peak conventional oil production in 2005 led to investment in biofuels, tarsands and in gas-to-liquids (GTL) and coal-to-liquids (CTL) liquid fuel substitution processes. Unfortunately the conversion thermal efficiency of both GTL and CTL is poor, so that gas and coal production peaks will be brought forward, while the fuel produced will be expensive.

Wether this leads to economic problems depends on the ability of societies to adjust to using around a quarter of the energy they currently consume. In the UK the seeds for this are sown in the Transition Towns initiatives and in the US in the “localisation” movement, enshrining what they call “energy descent”.

These will lead to a restoration of community values and neighbourliness and families will enjoy having a father working at home on the Internet or digging on his allotment to feed them.

The casualties will be the motor and aviation businesses already in decline. The problems will not be caused by the passing of peak oil, but by politicians trying to maintain an economic “status quo”. When in a hole the answer is not to dig it deeper by building airports and roads or by subsidising nuclear power destined to run out of fuel.

It is the localisation movements that will provide the ladder out of the emerging hole.

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