EU Energy Policy Blog

Energy policy is rich in emotion and diverse political and economic interests. Thus the journey towards establishing and implementing an integrated European energy policy has been and still is a cumbersome one. To make the trip for the future more exciting we have developed four storylines: l’Europe des patries, Fortress Europe, Confident Europe and Competitive Europe. The main conclusion to be drawn is that the issue for the EU is not energy resources per se, but rather access to them.

In a recent paper, we have explored some of the conditions under which energy policy could be formulated in and by the EU over the next 40 years or so. The development of energy policy at the EU level is addressed from a wider historical perspective, taking into account a number factors that influence both the EU project and its energy supply security. These factors include the EU’s international orientation and cooperation; the EU ‘economic community of law’ paradigm; the EU’s (failing?) external leadership role; the impact of the fall of the Berlin Wall; and Europe’s talents for creativity and improvisation. These factors are discussed in somewhat greater depth in the context of the formulation of an all-EU energy policy.

The global energy policy environment requires a closer look at the theoretical and practical aspects of using scenarios as a tool for energy policy-making is appropriate, especially when scenarios are basically addressed on the basis of storylines. Storylines do require a set of specific parameters, and in this case the choice was made to use the various roles played by stakeholders for intervening in markets and in the world order. This choice is argued on the basis of the global interrelations that are currently influencing resource policies in general and energy in particular. Market efficiency, climate change, poverty issues, geopolitics and global coordination mechanisms are considered, leading to the two policy dimensions of ‘nationalism’ versus ‘globalism’ and ‘heavy’ versus ‘light’ government as the axes for the scenarios and storylines.

We have developed four storylines that are conceivable and inherently consistent. They are labelled with names that refer not only to their content, but also to the political and societal climate prevailing in the region. The first, ‘l’Europe des Patries’, applies to a region where nation states are still the determinant factors. The second, ‘Fortress Europe’, is primarily inward-looking, with a strong drive towards inter-European cooperation and relations. ‘Confident Europe’ is an active participant in the global international system and practices what it preaches. And lastly, in ‘Competitive Europe’, market forces effectively deliver and are globally accepted.

The main conclusions to be drawn are that the issue for the EU is not energy resources per se, but rather access to them, and that current ambitions at the EU level on climate change adaptation and related energy issues are not likely to be matched by long-term performance in the region. More specifically, in the futures depicted by the four scenarios, the historical downward trend in energy intensity continues in all four storylines; the share of oil in the TPES decreases in all the storylines as well, and even ends up at roughly the same level in all four; coal remains important in the energy mix, largely for electricity generation; gas seems to be the most stable energy source in 2050, no matter what is happening in the world at large; and no physical supply constraints are anticipated. Nuclear energy seems to experience a revival in all the storylines, but with regard to renewable energy sources, there are some notable variations among them.

Finally, the new Energy Policy for Europe presented in early 2007 is assessed from a historical perspective, in the light of the EU’s 50-year energy policy quest, and is further analysed in relation to the four 2050 storylines. It is concluded that elements of all four scenarios are found in the new energy policy, but that the general tendency seems to be moving in the direction of more government intervention in markets instead of less. Meanwhile, for global climate issues the EU seems to be building its policy more on multilateralism and globalism, whereas when seeking energy supply security, nationalism and bilateral or regional approaches seem to prevail. The development of such policies however touches on the core competences of the national state. Developing such policies at EU level represents a huge challenge. The new energy policy is judged to be an intelligent first step towards balancing the triangle of energy policy objectives – the environment, competitiveness and supply security – that is usually framed as the Kyoto-Lisbon-Moscow triangle.

Jacques de Jong

This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 23rd, 2008 at 11:13 pm and is filed under Energy Policy, English. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.