Comments on: How dependent is Europe on Russian gas?

By: John Patrick

John Patrick — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 03:14:18 +0000

EU states have huge gas resources within their own borders in the form of coal bed methane (CBM) and stranded coal deposits at depth which are amenable to being gasified underground and extracted (UCG) using new environmenlally sound technologies successfully trialled in Australia. Local CBM and UCG are the only viable options capable of securing Europe’s gas supplies long term!

By: James Rothfeld

James Rothfeld — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 14:08:30 +0000

Several points:
Dependence on gas is regional. Germany is by far the most dependent on Russian gas, while Poland hardly uses any gas at all (relative to its overall energy consumption).
Furthermore, energy dependence on Russia has to take into consideration oil as well. This includes oil not only from Russia itself, but also from those sources that transit directly through Russia. By this calculation, Russia currently supplies about a quarter of all EU oil and gas demand.
By comparison, the Middle East – including North Africa – supplies less than 10% of all US oil and gas demand.
Since 1984, the the EU27 energy deficit in oil and gas has been steadily increasing.
EU gas and oil resources are rapidly declining, with few alternative sources within the EU and Norway left.
A politically sound analysis should include Norwegian gas as domestic to the EU27. This will not change the ratio of Russian energy in the EU27 energy balance, but it changes the relative size of Russia vis-a-vis any other source of oil and gas.

By: Ulf Hansen

Ulf Hansen — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 09:58:01 +0000

Mr. Noel has focussed on a vital point of European energy securityand I wonder if not already signs are seen that Russian gas may be in short supply. Mr. Putin just a few days ago said that the planned Norstream gas pipeline through the Baltic Sea to Germany may not be built because the neighbouring countries i. e. Finland, Sweden, the Baltic States, Poland a.o. are putting too many environmental stumbling stones in the way. Alternatively, LNG may be a proposition.

Are environmental concerns the only problems? Could it be that a pipeline would commit too large a gas volume over too long a period and that LNG offerrs a more flexible export route?

By: Justinas

Justinas — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 05:14:29 +0000

I appreciate critical analysis conducted by Mr Noel. Arguments are precisely weighted and warranted by relevant data.

At the same time I wonder what impact in Europe possible Russian-Chinese gas trade might have. Since signing PSA in 2006, development remains unclear. If built these pipelines would probably fasten resource depletion in Western Siberia.

Noteworthy, I do believe analysts at EU Commission did a great job preparing Second Strategic Energy Review. Renewables (especially windmills), nuclear are still solutions worth pursuing. Not only due to Russian threats, but Climate change issue too. Shall we expect ECFR commentary on the Second EU Energy package?

By: John Busby

John Busby — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 15:58:49 +0000

Taking the figures from the BP Statisitical Review 2008 for Saudi oil and Russian gas I was able to show the coming problem of reducing production and rising domestic use.

See “Oil and gas net exports” in the Real Resources Review

http://www.sandersresearch.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1361&Itemid=105

The two pllots show a Saudi oil production peak in 2005 and Russian gas peak in 2006/ The UK was once a net oil and gas importer, but has been able to source elsewhere. When the same scenario applies to Saudi Arabia and Russia, they have nowhere else to go!

If Russia’s internal economy continues to grow and the Shtokman field is delayed, the extrapolated plots cross around 2015 when the valve to Europe will finally be closed.

By: Hugh Sharman

Hugh Sharman — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 15:50:36 +0000

Mr Noel’s paper only illustrates more clearly what a mess Europe’s energy policy is. He is right that Russia probabaly cannot increase gas exports without leaving domestic demand short and that would be politically disastrous for who ever is in the Kremlin. In fact, Russian exports are likely to fall. Among other matters, it lacks the capital to develop large new reservoirs and is in any case hardly motivated to develop these reservoirs in order to bring down the price of energy!

But then who will fill the growing gap? Not Qatar. Not Norway, soon to be on a production plateau. Not Algeria. Not Iran which has dallied for decades with LNG export that has never been realised

Let’s face it, it was always stupid to assign so much of our vital infrastructure to reliance gas which we, in the EU, no longer have. It was unbelieveably stupid to draw our own reserves down so rapidly at such low cost. Access across EU countries however “free” is not the same as commanding reserves which we do not have.

Mr Noels paper illustrates how in the long run, Russia has us over a barrel of our own making!