EU On Track To Exceed 50% Renewable Generation By 2030
March 3rd, 2012 by Fereidoon Sioshansi, EEnergy InformerRenewable energy resources, according to the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA), are poised to meet over half of EU’s electricity demand by 2030. In a statement released in mid-January 2012, Justin Wilkes, EWEA’s Director of Policy, said that the EU had already achieved the 21% target set in a 2001 directive for the end of 2010 by generating somewhere between 665-673 TWh from renewable resources, or 21% of total EU consumption of 3,115-3,175 TWh in 2010.
That is an impressive feat. But even more impressive is what Mr. Wilkes says can be achieved by 2020 and 2030 if EU merely stays the course. If renewable electricity production in the EU continues to grow at the same rate as it did from 2005 to 2010 it would reach 36.4% and an amazing 51.6% of electricity consumption within EU block by 2020 and 2030, respectively (see graph below).
”The renewable electricity targets set back in 2001 have been realistic as well as effective” according to Mr. Wilkes, adding, “The growth achieved in the last five years has been outstanding and if continued would result in over half of the EU’s electricity coming from renewables by 2030.”
These projections, even allowing for some wishful thinking by the likes of EWEA, suggest that at least within the EU block, much higher renewable targets can be achieved by 2030 – in contrast to BP study’s projections, which assumes a 26% renewable penetration. Clearly one of the two is off target.
Equally impressive is the amount of renewables as percentage of new installed capacity within EU, reported to be 71.3% for 2011, in a report also released by EWEA in February 2012. The association says 9,616 MW of wind energy capacity was installed in the EU in 2011, bringing the cumulative wind capacity to 93,957 MW, enough to supply 6.3% of the EU’s electricity demand assuming historical capacity factors. New wind accounted for 21.4% of new EU capacity, with the balance coming from solar and other renewable resources.
EU’s wind industry has had an average annual growth rate of 15.6% over the past 17 years. Overall EU’s generation capacity grew a mere 3.9% in 2011 compared to 2010 to 896 GW. Germany remains the country with the largest installed wind capacity, followed by Spain, France, Italy, and the UK within the EU, in that order.
Globally, wind grew by 41 GW or 6% in 2011, with China accounting for over 2/5th of the global growth, according to Steve Sawyer, Secretary General of the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC). The latest annual GWEC report says China installed 18 GW of new wind capacity in 2011, 6.8 GW for the US and 3 for India, followed by Germany, the UK, Canada and Spain, in that order.
Solar energy, especially PVs, also continues to grow, with sunny Italy surpassing the not-so-sunny Germany for the first time in new installations. According to the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), Italy installed 9 GW of new PV capacity in 2011 compared to 2.3 GW in 2010, accounting for a full 1/3rd of new PV capacity in the world. Germany, in comparison, added 7.5 GW of new PV capacity last year.
Globally, 27.7 GW of new PV capacity was added in 2011 from 16.6 GW in 2010, with Europe accounting for more than 75% of the total. Global PV capacity is estimated to exceed 67.4 GW at the end of 2011. After hydro and wind, PV is now the third biggest form of installed renewable energy capacity.
A report by PriceWaterHouse Coopers (PwC), the consultancy, says global renewable energy “deals” climbed 40% to a record high of $53.5 billion last year from $38.2 billion in 2010, with transactions in solar, wind and energy efficiency overtaking hydropower for the first time. “Sustained high deal numbers and record total value reflect a maturing of the sector,” according to Paul Nillesen, a PwC Partner.
March 5th, 2012 at 4:02 pm
[...] http://www.energypolicyblog.com/2012/03/03/eu-on-track-to-exceed-50-renewable-generation-by-2030/ Renewable energy resources, according to the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA), are poised to meet over half of EU’s electricity demand by 2030. In a statement released in mid-January 2012, Justin Wilkes, EWEA’s Director of Policy, said that the EU had already achieved the 21% target set in a 2001 directive for the end of 2010 by generating somewhere between 665-673 TWh from renewable resources, or 21% of total EU consumption of 3,115-3,175 TWh in 2010… [...]
April 3rd, 2012 at 12:00 pm
This article is optimistic and seems to announce very good news but it inspires me mixed ideas.
First I am wondering if I should feel happy of the evolution of the fuel price on the market, even when I am at the fuel pump, filling up my car. Are the last years’ price increases responsible of this large investment in oil alternative and renewable energy? I think it is linked, as these investments correspond to the ambition of getting an energetic independence, and particularly to be independent from oil.
Second I am wondering if the amount of money invested in renewable couldn’t have been more efficient in term of reducing carbon emission if invested in another way. As this article deals with EWEA information’s I look for an answer on their website. I found a piece of answer with the €4 billion European Energy Programme for Recovery (EEPR) which was launched in 2009 in response to the economic crisis and the need to meet EU energy policy objectives: “offshore wind energy was allocated the smallest amount of funding – €565 million or 14% of the total – and yet it has created ten times more jobs than CCS projects. Since 2009, a total of 4,000 jobs have been created in offshore wind projects financed under the EEPR compared to 400 in CCS, despite CCS being allocated nearly double (€1,050 million) the amount allotted to offshore wind.” My conclusion is that even if renewable is maybe not the best choice it seems to be very efficient in terms of jobs creation, driving the European industry, boosting the energy security and tackling climate change.
So what is the next step? The European Parliament voted a few days ago for the first time in favor of setting a binding renewable energy target for 2030, so we might reach the 51% mentioned in the post.
Finally, my last question is: what would be the design of an European electric power installation able to work and to follow requests, based on 50% of intermittent renewable energy? Will the renewable furniture be quite constant thanks to the different kinds of renewable and their different localizations? Or will we need enough other sources of energy able to stop and start very quickly like gas? Or will we develop another solution like storage (why not thanks to loading electric cars?) or international interconnection?
April 10th, 2012 at 8:59 pm
To get a better understanding of the renewable market dynamic in the EU, let us have a closer look at the results provided by the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA). As a starting point, here is a brief reminder of the EU environmental targets already set or even expected.
The most famous of all is the EU Climate and Energy Package, adopted by the European Parliament in December 2008, including the so-called “three 20 targets” notably aiming at reaching 20% of renewable energy in the total energy consumption in the EU by 2020. The EU has also committed to reducing GHG emissions to 80-95% below 1990 levels by 2050 (European Council, October 2009). The « Energy Roadmap 2050 », adopted on 15 December 2011, puts the share of renewables in gross final energy consumption in 2050 at between 55% (lowest scenario) and 75% (highest scenario) whereas today’s level is estimated at around 10%.
Though the current policy project aims to reduce GHG emissions to 30% by 2030 (A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050, March 2011), there is no renewable energy target for 2030. As a consequence, the EU climate action commissioner Connie Hedegaard argued in favour of a 2030 renewable energy target : « We should be discussing a renewable energy target for 2030. We need to have ambitious targets. It would be one way to send a long-term price signal for renewable energy – that renewable energy is not just going to stop growing after 2020 ».
According to the EWEA, renewable energy sources will reach over half of the EU electricity demand by 2030. Actually, they assume the share of renewables will keep growing at the same rate as it did from 2005 to 2010… That’s a pretty strong and optimistic assertion ! Although EU renewable generation capacity has sharply risen over the last decade, low carbon generation penetration rate could stagnate or even dwindle : the significant installation of renewable generators may even reach a threshold soon. Indeed, the electricity network is not able to incorporate so much intermittent capacities. Given the existing power generation (nuclear for instance), its relative inflexibility and the limted electricity storage options available at the present time, it won’t be easy to address intermittency issues, especially during peak demand times. Incorporating so much intermittent generation in the EU energy mix will also require huge investments in the electricity network (reinforcement of ageing network, construction of new network, development of smarter networks). There is a second argument which cannot be ignored : wind and solar energy have not reached grid parity yet. Thus, renewable energy sector need public subsidy support to be profitable (“feed-in” tarif…). However, this financial support has declined sharply with the EU economic crisis… One of the most striking examples is the spanish case : in January 2012, the government stopped its subsidy support for new wind, solar, co-generation or waste incineration plants to help curbing its deficit budget. You could also consider the case of Evasol, the french leader solar company for photovoltaïc systems destined for individual home owners, which has started a judicial recovery process on March 29th, 2012 because of the decrease of public subsidies.
Providing incentives to boost renewable sector is also a way to create thousands of jobs over the continent. Thus, the increase of the share of renewables could be guarantee over the next decades. Moreover, promoting wind or solar energy is a pretty good way to insure EU security of supply and be less dependent of gas or oil prices at the same time. Little by little, renewable and conventional generation costs are getting closer because of innovation, rising commodity prices (oil, gas…) or even the increase of nuclear production costs due to nuclear safety for instance… To conclude, I will put forward a necessary crucial point for renewables growing : EU governments have to encourage networks development. Revolutionizing electricity distribution networks through the implementation of Demand Side Mangement (DSM) and smart meters will play a key role to manage this intermittent production. For instance, £19bn of investment is needed in electricity networks by 2020 to support a lower-carbon economy in the UK according to Ofgem. Thus, aiming at environmental targets will require huge investments, probably passed to consumers in the end…
April 11th, 2012 at 2:34 pm
Even though we have witnessed an impressive growth in renewable electricity production in Europe from 2005 to 2010, EWEA should not take such a growth for granted for the coming several years. Indeed, two elements are very likely to seriously weaken this growth rate in the next two decades.
First, subsidies, in the end paid by consumers, are going to evolve in two ways. Both prices, with a fall that may be heavy, and volumes, because of the increase in renewable production, need to be looked at. Spain, a country that has strongly supported the increase in renewable energies for the 2005-1010 period, has declared in January 2012 a moratorium on such subsidies.
Second, the higher the penetration factor of renewable energies, the more its being discontinuous will hold its development up. Thus, Spain has oversized production capacities when compared with demand but such capacities are necessary to take into account the discontinuity of its renewables. This problem may very well appear in France or Italy. Are networks able to allow an efficient expansion? If we want it to be so, ENTSO-E needs to invest massively in the future, and the 1400 French Spanish megawatts won’t be enough.
If the EU is heading toward 50% of renewable energies, one has to keep in mind that only the easy part of the road has been covered, and that the mountains are still to be crossed.
April 11th, 2012 at 3:32 pm
The article presents a pretty clear picture of the success story of the renewable
energy in the European scenario. The targets set in 2001 for 2010 were ambitious
and had already been achieved successfully and the future scenario is envisaged
quite optimistic for 2020 and 2030. The new installations have been impressive in
terms of the growth and energy capacity in the last few years. But, the question is
‘Are we on track so far for to reach further goals?’ As of mid-March 2012, only 15
Member States have provided their Progress Report; 12 reports are still expected to
be delivered. However, according to the European Commission, 10 of the EU’s 27
Member States are likely to surpass their national targets, while a further 12 will meet
their goals. Just five countries are predicted to miss their targets using domestic
renewable energy sources alone such as, Belgium, Denmark, Italy, Luxembourg and Malta. Sweden is expected to be on surplus along the way until it falls into uncertainty zone in 2020.
Financing is the key for the development of renewable energies both in the run-up to
2020 and post-2020, which applies to the wind energy projects as well as solar. For
an example (from an article published in The Guardian on 11 March 2012), UK is
opposing a 2030 renewable energy target and wants to put nuclear power on equal
footing with renewable energy which could hit the fledgling green industries in the
UK. Instead of the EC (European Commission) defined targets for the part of
renewable in the national energy, the UK envisages multiple low-carbon
technologies: renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage.
The ambitious targets for 2020 and 2030 may be achieved or maybe not, as it had
been undermined by BP study’s projections, depends on the effective policy
implementation schemes following NREAPs (National Renewable Energy Action
Plans) of Member States. Efficient and risk optimized financing mechanisms following
the deployment of national renewable energy policies must be implemented in order
to leap towards an optimistic future, especially in the developing economies within
EU. Nevertheless, the increasing involvement of the renewable in the European
energy would surely mitigate its energy dependence by reducing the energy related
imports, but it’d happen slowly and would need a better plan and finance schemes for
the countries which are not prepared for it yet, economically.
October 6th, 2012 at 2:58 am
Ola! Energypolicyblog,
Interesting Post, It was actually a backdoor way for Obama to advance a green agenda. I know certain conservatives must hate that considering they hate the environment, but green stamina is the fastest growing industry in the world. Here is a sample of which.. Last year, exactly 2 U.S. factories made advanced batteries for electric cars. The stimulus can create 30 unique ones, expanding U.S. creation ability from 1% of the international marketplace to 20%, supporting half a million plug-ins and hybrids. And after the credit crunch froze financing for green stamina, stimulus cash has fueled a comeback, placing the U.S. on track to exceed Obama’s objective of doubling renewable power by 2012. That’s why the stimulus introduced the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E), a blue-sky fund inspired by the Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the incubator for GPS and the M-16 rifle and also the Internet. Located in an workplace building a block from the rest of the Energy Department, ARPA-E usually finance energy analysis too dangerous for private funders, focusing on speculative technologies which could dramatically cut the cost of, state, carbon capture � or not. “We’re taking possibilities, because that’s how we put a guy on the moon,” claims director Arun Majumdar, a materials scientist within the University of California, Berkeley. “Our idea is it’s O.K. to fail. We think America’s pioneers not failed?” An amazing post on the stimulus, lots of stuff we merely don’t hear about inside the principal stream media. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/articl�
Thx.