EU Energy Policy Blog

C. J. Campbell is the leading advocate of the peak-oil catastrophe theory, and one of the few to recognize its most startling prediction. If the theory (actually more of a hunch) is correct, oil production will peak quite soon, or possibly on November 24, 2005 according to Deffeyes, the smartest of the bunch. Once oil production declines, there will be no adequate replacement, and we will be doing a lot less driving around. This will dramatically reduce CO2 emissions which are half from oil, and that will fix the global warming problem. These guys are geologists and ignore economics. Continue reading »

The key to an effective energy policy is to understand that climate stability and energy security are twin challenges—though not identical. As discussed below, both challenges are global and suffer from the “free-rider” problem.
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OPEC’s recent “energy policy” is a lot like a Kyoto policy focused on oil, but with a startling difference.
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History shows that the world economy did not collapse when oil supply peaked sharply in 1979, so where have the peak-oil geologists gone wrong in their thinking?

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Fixing the climate takes two steps, organizing and acting.
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If peak-oil proponents are the pessimists of the energy world, physicists are the optimists. Peak-oil buffs believe that having less oil will end civilization while energy guru Amory Lovins, a member of the physics camp, tells us that “displacing most, probably all, of our oil … makes money”.
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The physicists want many efficiency regulations and care little for price signals. Neoclassical economists want only price signals and no energy efficiency regulations.

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A carbon untax is an incentive to use less carbon. Unlike a tax, it raises no revenues for the government, but refunds all revenues to consumers.

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Conservation is the main way consumers respond to high market prices. When price goes up, consumption comes down—but it takes a while for the full price effect to play out.
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Producing ethanol or more oil domestically will not significantly increase our energy independence unlike conservation which protects consumers from oil shocks.
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